2008 Baseball Predictions – How Did I Do?

Ok, back in March we made our predictions on the season over on Puns.  I decided that with 25 games left, this would be a pretty good time to take a look at how I called things.

AL East Prediction

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Tampa Bay (I could see Toronto and Tampa flip flopping here though)
5. Baltimore (they will lose over 100)

Boston still has a legit shot at passing Tampa for the division, they are only 3.5 games out and have six games head to head left.  The Yankees will not finish second, and will miss the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.  After four years of predicting that, I finally got that right.  New York will finish either third or fourth in the division depending on how Toronto plays.  I had Baltimore pegged for over 100 losses, they won’t hit that mark, but they will finish last in the division.

AL Central Predictions

1. Detroit
2. Cleveland (WC)
3. Chicago
4. Kansas City
5. Minnesota (any of the last three teams in this division could finish in any order, I don’t think any of them are all that good)

Wow.  Couldn’t have been much more off on this division if I had tried.  The only way Cleveland and Detroit are seeing the playoffs this year is if they buy tickets.  Right now, a realistic goal for them is .500, NEVER would have guessed that before the season.  Chicago has been in first place most of the season and look like they have the slight edge to make the playoffs over a Minnesota team that I still can’t understand how they are winning as much as they are.  Kansas City will finish last, most likely, though I did not even predict that.

AL West Predictions

1. Anaheim
2. Seattle
3. Oakland
4. Texas (that pitching staff is horrific)

Hey I finally got one right! Me and the rest of the planet.  The Angels should wrap this division up in the next few days.  Seattle second huh.  Yeah I was just a BIT off on that one.  Oakland third, well that is right.  They actually looked like they may surprise people this year, then they traded all their pitching and have gone 33-50 since June 1.  Texas pitching IS pretty bad, but their offense bailed them out for a pretty good chunk of the season and kept them on the fringes of the playoffs.  They will finish second in the division, but they are a complete non-factor.

NL East Predictions:

1. Philadelphia
2. New York (WC)
3. Atlanta (I could also see these three teams finishing in any order in the east too, but this is what I am going with now)
4. Washington
5. Florida (in a few years, this team will be really good)

This one can still happen.  The Phillies and Mets play a HUGE series at Shea this weekend.  The Mets are currently 3 games up.  A sweep by them would just about end the season for the Phillies.  I had the team that didn’t win the division as the Wild Card, but that is not going to happen now.  There is no safety net, making this series even bigger.  Atlanta was hanging around until they trades Tex, since then they have gone 11-22 and will have their second losing season in three years.  The Marlins were a whole lot better than I they had any right to be even if they have fallen off a little bit here lately.  The Nats on the other hand, were FAR worse than I thought they would be they have to go 9-12 down the stretch to avoid 100 losses.

NL Central Predictions:

1. Chicago
2. Milwaukee
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. Houston
6. St. Louis (one of the three bottom teams here could lose 100 games)

It looks like I am going to get the top two teams right in this one.  Despite the problems with Big Z, I think the Cubs can hold on and win this division pretty easily.  Also, despite the hot and cold nature of the Brewers, I think they will hang on for the Wild Card for their first post season appearance in forever.  The rest of the division? I wasn’t even close.  Pittsburgh and Cincinnati won’t lose 100 games, but they will finish at the bottom of the division.  Cincy surprises me, I thought they would be better.  Pittsburgh is on pace for their 16th straight losing season, tying them (I assume) with the Phillies for the longest run of losing seasons in baseball history. (on a depressing side note, the Pirates have some work to do if they really want to surpass the Phillies ineptness, from 1918-1948 the Phillies had ONE winning season, 1932 when they managed to go 78-76.  Then it was back into the crapper for another 16 years)

NL West Predictions:

1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. San Diego
4. Los Angeles (1-4 could be almost any order though, good teams out here)
5. San Francisco (they will lose 100)

I probably have this one right, I think the D-Backs can hold onto first and make another playoff appearance.  The Dodgers should finish second, and I did kind of predict that.  Colorado is making a late run, but they are 6 back right now, so they have a steep hill to climb.  The Padres are horrific and have to go 9-13 down the stretch to avoid 100 losses.  The Giants were better than I thought.  They will still finish under .500, but they won’t lose 100 unless the bottom COMPLETELY falls out.

Playoffs

Detroit over Anaheim
Boston over Cleveland

There is a chance that three of those four teams won’t even make the playoffs.  Two of them are a lock.

Detroit over Boston

Yeah not happening there.

Chicago over New York
Philly over Arizona

Small chance that this happens, Chicago and Arizona will almost certainly make it, but only one of Philly and New York looks like they will make it this time

Chicago over Philly

Possible.

Detroit over Chicago

Well, Chicago could be there (and they are my pick to come out of the NL)

So what does this mean? I am not very good at predictions.